Early Warning & Risk Module
Continuously monitoring debt and macro-financial vulnerability across AU Member States. Early detection of systemic risks ahead of formal DSA cycles.
0
Critical Alert
43
Elevated Alert
9
Watch Status
3
No Alert (Normal)
Deteriorating Trend
12
Stable Trend
27
Improving Trend
16
Filters
Continental Surveillance Heatmap
Comprehensive aggregate matrix for all 55 AU Member States
| Country | Region | DCC | Composite EWI | Alert Level | Trend | Primary Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egypt | North Africa | Strong | 64.3 | elevated | Stable | debtfiscal |
| Zambia | Southern Africa | Strong | 64.2 | elevated | Improving | debtfiscal |
| Ghana | West Africa | Strong | 62.7 | elevated | Improving | debtmarket |
| Ethiopia | East Africa | Weak | 59.9 | elevated | Deteriorating | debtmarket |
| Eritrea | East Africa | Medium | 53.4 | elevated | Improving | debtfiscal |
| Senegal | West Africa | Strong | 52.7 | elevated | Improving | debtexternal |
| Sudan | North Africa | Medium | 50.7 | elevated | Improving | debtfiscal |
| Malawi | Southern Africa | Strong | 50.1 | elevated | Stable | debtexternal |
| Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) | North Africa | Weak | 49.3 | elevated | Deteriorating | debtfiscal |
| Togo | West Africa | Strong | 48.4 | elevated | Improving | debtexternal |
| Equatorial Guinea | Central Africa | Strong | 47.5 | elevated | Stable | debtexternal |
| Benin | West Africa | Strong | 46.8 | elevated | Stable | fiscaldebt |
| Chad | Central Africa | Strong | 46.8 | elevated | Stable | debtexternal |
| Tanzania | East Africa | Weak | 46.2 | elevated | Stable | debtmarket |
| Guinea-Bissau | West Africa | Strong | 46.1 | elevated | Stable | debtexternal |
| Burundi | East Africa | Medium | 46.0 | elevated | Improving | debtexternal |
| Tunisia | North Africa | Weak | 46.0 | elevated | Stable | debtmarket |
| Gabon | Central Africa | Medium | 45.5 | elevated | Stable | fiscalexternal |
| Niger | West Africa | Weak | 45.1 | elevated | Deteriorating | debtfiscal |
| DR Congo | Central Africa | Weak | 44.3 | elevated | Deteriorating | debtfiscal |
| Algeria | North Africa | Strong | 44.2 | elevated | Stable | debtexternal |
| South Africa | Southern Africa | Strong | 44.2 | elevated | Improving | debtfiscal |
| Namibia | Southern Africa | Strong | 44.0 | elevated | Improving | debtfiscal |
| Seychelles | East Africa | Weak | 43.8 | elevated | Stable | debtmarket |
| Nigeria | West Africa | Strong | 43.4 | elevated | Improving | debtfiscal |
| Rwanda | East Africa | Medium | 43.3 | elevated | Improving | debtexternal |
| Somalia | East Africa | Weak | 43.3 | elevated | Stable | debtmarket |
| Liberia | West Africa | Strong | 42.8 | elevated | Stable | debtmarket |
| Libya | North Africa | Weak | 42.7 | elevated | Deteriorating | debtfiscal |
| Guinea | West Africa | Strong | 42.5 | elevated | Improving | debtfiscal |
| Lesotho | Southern Africa | Weak | 42.4 | elevated | Deteriorating | fiscaldebt |
| Uganda | East Africa | Weak | 42.3 | elevated | Stable | debtmarket |
| Eswatini | Southern Africa | Strong | 42.3 | elevated | Improving | debtfiscal |
| Central African Republic | Central Africa | Strong | 42.2 | elevated | Improving | debtexternal |
| Mozambique | Southern Africa | Strong | 42.0 | elevated | Improving | debtfiscal |
| Sao Tome and Principe | Central Africa | Strong | 41.8 | elevated | Improving | debtfiscal |
| South Sudan | East Africa | Medium | 41.6 | elevated | Stable | debtmarket |
| Cote d'Ivoire | West Africa | Strong | 41.5 | elevated | Stable | debtfiscal |
| Comoros | East Africa | Strong | 41.4 | elevated | Stable | debtmarket |
| Burkina Faso | West Africa | Medium | 41.2 | elevated | Stable | fiscaldebt |
| Mali | West Africa | Weak | 40.7 | elevated | Deteriorating | debtfiscal |
| Mauritania | North Africa | Weak | 40.6 | elevated | Deteriorating | debtfiscal |
| Sierra Leone | West Africa | Weak | 40.5 | elevated | Deteriorating | debtfiscal |
| Cameroon | Central Africa | Weak | 38.6 | watch | Stable | debtmarket |
| Kenya | East Africa | Weak | 38.6 | watch | Stable | debtmarket |
| Cabo Verde | West Africa | Weak | 38.5 | watch | Deteriorating | debtfiscal |
| Angola | Southern Africa | Weak | 37.7 | watch | Stable | debtmarket |
| Congo | Central Africa | Weak | 37.1 | watch | Stable | debtmarket |
| Zimbabwe | Southern Africa | Weak | 35.2 | watch | Deteriorating | fiscaldebt |
| Gambia | West Africa | Medium | 34.2 | watch | Stable | debtmarket |
| Madagascar | Southern Africa | Medium | 33.3 | watch | Stable | debtmarket |
| Djibouti | East Africa | Medium | 33.2 | watch | Stable | debtmarket |
| Morocco | North Africa | Medium | 16.9 | none | Stable | debtfiscal |
| Botswana | Southern Africa | Weak | 16.8 | none | Deteriorating | debtfiscal |
| Mauritius | East Africa | Weak | 15.6 | none | Stable | debtfiscal |